There have been a stack of rumours swirling over the last couple of weeks about Microsoft's plans for a revised Xbox 360. It all started with a 1UP article which claimed their "sources" had told them that Microsoft would be launching a new Xbox 360 next year. The revised console would not only feature a built in Natal camera, but would also have some hardware upgrades. It would "be considered a new platform and carry a new name."
Microsoft moved swiftly to try and pour cold water on that rumour, but their response was somewhat ambiguous. Xbox's Aaron Greenberg told Eurogamer: "I think part of the excitement about this announcement is that in many ways we are delivering a next generation experience this generation. With that said, I can confirm that Natal will run on Xbox 360 so no new console investment will be necessary."
So Natal will be released as a peripheral and people won't need to buy a new console - but the statement didn't exactly contradict the possibility of a new Xbox SKU.
Then on Friday, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer dropped a bombshell, telling a meeting of The Executive's Club in Chicago that "a new Xbox 360 will hit the store shelves in 2010." The new version would have a "natural interface," and a built-in camera - i.e. Project Natal technology.
But Ballmer was soon backpedaling on that announcement, saying he misspoke. "I confused the issue with my poorly chosen words. There is no news in my comments. Things are as reported after E3. Sorry."
Xbox's Aaron Greenberg reiterated this in comments made to games blog Kotaku, firmly stating: "There will be no new console."
"We're not going to be launching a new console any time soon. I really believe he [Ballmer] was speaking about Project Natal," said Greenberg. "We want to make sure people know that we're excited about Project Natal, but we're barely halfway through this generation. We're happy with the Xbox 360, so there are no changes from that standpoint. For the time being, we're really just showing a whole new category of gaming."
Greenberg repeated his statement that Natal would be an add-on to Xbox 360. "We are saying that the Natal will run on the Xbox 360, so there's no new hardware to purchase. What we're doing that's unique is, instead of asking you to invest in a new generation of hardware, a generation that's already well established, extending the experience even longer by adding this whole new category of experiences with Project Natal."
So, one thing is clear: Microsoft doesn't want anyone to think they're going to release a new Xbox 360. The question is, do you believe them?
Why Microsoft should rename the Xbox 360
My take is this: when Microsoft launches Project Natal, it will come bundled with a redesigned Xbox 360 with a new name. There won't be any significant upgrades to the hardware, but it will get a visual refresh and it won't be called Xbox 360.
That will be in addition to offering Natal (which won't be called Natal either) as an add-on peripheral for people who already own an Xbox 360.
Why, you ask, will they need to do this? As Greenberg said above, Natal is "a whole new category of experiences" -- Microsoft's objective with Natal is to attract an entirely new audience to their platform. That is, everyone who owns a Wii, plus the many millions more people who don't own a console at all. So while offering Natal as an add-on for Xbox 360 will be an important olive branch to keep existing customers happy, they can't offer it that way alone.
Make no mistake: Project Natal is about reinventing the platform, and that's going to require doing more than just releasing a peripheral.
Xbox 360 has been as successful as it is in large part because it has attracted an audience of "core" gamers playing first-person shooter games like Halo, Call of Duty and Gears of War (some of which has come at the expense of the PC gaming audience). Sure, there's plenty of other games available, but you only have to look at the numbers to see where the Xbox audience's interests lie. This is not a lot different from the PS3 audience, but it is very different from the PS2 audience and the Wii audience, the two consoles that have achieved the greatest living room penetration.
That presents a problem for Microsoft in its grand ambitions to take Natal to the casual gaming masses. 90% of Natal's potential audience don't own an Xbox 360, but they probably have heard of Xbox 360 and have certain preconceptions about what an Xbox 360 is and does.
It's a video game console that teenage boys like to play shooting games on.
No matter how amazing Natal may be, that simple fact will inhibit Natal from imbuing Xbox with the type of desirable brand cachet that has so benefited products like Nintendo's Wii and Apple's iPhone, for example. Attaching something new (Natal) to something old (Xbox 360) will taint it and prevent it from achieving its full potential.
In technical terms the Nintendo Wii is really just a minor upgrade on the GameCube hardware, with the addition of motion controls. But if Nintendo had released those motion controls as a peripheral for the GameCube, do you think they would have sold 50 million GameCubes? Not a chance. The Wii got mindshare because it felt like something completely new.
That's why if Natal is to be as successful as Microsoft no doubt hopes it will be, it will need to be as much a branding exercise as it is a technical one. Microsoft might not want to admit it yet, but the Xbox will need to be reinvented as something new, which means changing its name and giving it a facelift.
So if Natal is released in 2010, expect to see it integrated into some kind of "slim" Xbox 360 with a new look, no ordinary controller and probably no hard drive either. And a cute name like "Xii".
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